Your guide to US election terminology: October surprise, popular votes & more

The US Presidential Elections are less than a month away, and experts are anticipating an “October surprise”. They also analyse the mood of the voters in seven swing states in the US. As the voting day nears, the focus is also on popular votes and the votes of the Electoral College. The major contest is between the two parties – Republicans and Democrats.
But what do these terms – Republicans, Democrats, October surprise, popular vote, swing state, etc – mean? Here’s a list of key terms related to the US presidential election you must know:
The US electoral system is called a two-party system. The Democratic and Republican Parties as the most influential players in the US elections. However, other parties, including the Reform, Libertarian, Socialist, Natural Law, Constitution, and Green Parties, also participate in presidential elections. These are often termed “third parties”.
In teh 2024 elections, US Vice President Kamala Harris is the candidate for the Democrats and former US president Donald Trump is the Republican candidate.
Poll pundits are bracing for a story that will upend the 2024 contest. Just a few weeks before the November 5 elections, they are “expecting the unexpected,” which could significantly change the outcome of the campaigns in the last few weeks. This is called an “October surprise”.
These are “these potentially game-changing election eve stories”. It is an unexpected event or piece of information that comes out right before the election and can turn election campaigns upside down. It could be anything — a scandalous revelation about a candidate or an outbreak of war or economic turmoil.
It’s clear why it’s called a “surprise. But why “October”? Because US presidential elections are always held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. In this scenario, any last-minute surprising/spontaneous event would most probably happen just weeks before the polls – that is, in October.
The term was popularized in 1980. In 2016, both the videotape of Donald Trump describing his method of sexually assaulting women and FBI director James Comey’s decision to reexamine Hillary Clinton’s emails were dubbed October Surprises, the Rutgers University stated.
Early this October, many claimed that deadly Hurricane Helene wreaking havoc in battleground states could act as the “October surprise”. It was believed so because such disasters could hamper voter turnout in affected areas. It may also impact voters’ perception of their presidential candidates.
A ballot deposited by a voter in the ballot box, mailbox, drop box or electronically submitted for tabulation.
When a voter votes more than one ballot
Cast ballot that has been successfully accepted and initially processed.
Voting before election day (November 5 this year) where the voter completes the ballot in person at an elections office or other designated polling site prior to election day. Early voting can also include voting with a mailed or absentee ballot prior to election day.
Swing states, or battleground states, are those that either candidate could potentially win – meaning, these states are decision-makers as they face close contest between two candidates. Among the 50 US states, there are seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Minnesota. New to this clutch of swing states is North Carolina.
It’s a vote cast by all people in a country. The popular vote is simply the candidate who receives the largest total number of votes from the American citizens who cast their votes. However, it is not the popular vote but the Electoral College that decides the next US president.
It is possible to win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote. This happened in 2016, 2000, and three times in the 1800s. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican Donald Trump won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. He became the US president that year.
Each US state gets as many electors as it has members of Congress (House and Senate). Including Washington, DC’s three electors, there are currently 538 electors in all. Each state’s political parties choose their slate of potential electors. A candidate needs the vote of at least 270 electors—more than half of all electors — to win the presidential election.
After citizens cast their ballot for president, their vote goes to a statewide tally. In 48 states and Washington, D.C., the winner gets all the electoral votes for that state. In most cases, a projected winner is announced on election night in November after Americans cast vote. But the actual Electoral College vote takes place in mid-December when the electors meet in their states. Tap read more about electoral college, its role and process
A ballot measure is a law, issue or topic placed on a statewide or municipal ballot in the United States for voters to decide through an election. Besides, the choice between the Democratic ticket (Kamala Harris and Tim Walz) and the Republican one (Donald Trump and JD Vance), US ballots can also include ballot measures: statewide laws, issues or questions.
US elections face the issue of a lack of “down-ballot voting”. Down-ballot measures are the measures on the ballot voters opt for other than choosing the US presidential candidate. According to the US Vote Foundation, barely 50 percent of eligible voters cast a ballot, and a third or more of those voting don’t bother to fill out the entire ballot.
“The good news is that voters don’t have to vote for everything on the ballot in order for the votes they do cast to be valid…But the bad news is that not voting down-ballot for state and local representatives and not voting on local issues – school bonds and referenda and funding for police and social services – means wasting an opportunity to have the broadest impact possible,” the foundation explains.
The tradition of calling states that usually favor Republicans “red” and Democrats “blue” came about. A “red state” tends to vote Republican, and a “blue state” tends to vote Democrat. A swing state is one that swings between Republicans and Democrats from one election to the next.
A provisional ballot is a ballot that is marked but is not counted at the time it is cast. It is issued to a voter who cannot provide the poll workers with documentation as required by federal law. A provisional ballot allows a person to vote but it means that their vote is placed in a separate “secrecy envelope” rather than the ballot box.
The US state government websites explain that a provisional ballot provides a way for people to vote whose voter registration or qualifications to vote are in question. It is also used when a voter does not or cannot present photo ID when voting in person. A voter receives a provisional ballot when questions arise about:
1. The voter’s qualification to vote,
2. The voter’s eligibility to vote in a given election, or
3. The voter’s eligibility to vote a specific ballot style.
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The sun belt states includes 15 states, stretching across the Southeast and Southwest. These states have a sunnier or milder climate than the northern states.
The New York Times reported that the Sun Belt represents an essential set of states for Republican Donald Trump while offering a potential second route for Democrat Kamala Harris to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win. According to several other reports, Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat candidate running for President, is setting her sights on the Southwest.
The Bible Belt of the US is a cultural description of an area of the country where Christianity and religious traditions play a large role in everyday life. According to the Guardian, this belt tends to be Christian and conservative, and vote Republican.
It includes Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee, North Carolina, Georgia and Oklahoma. The city of Tulsa in Oklahoma is known as the “buckle” of the Bible belt.
Searching for a word not mentioned here? Try finding its meaning in the glossary shared by US Election Assistant Commission in this link.